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Quick Boys vs HHC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Quick Boys
Quick Boys
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
HHC
HHC
3/23/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 26Sportpark Nieuw Zuid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Quick Boys45%
×Draw24%
HHC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quick Boys
1.71
HHC
1.38

Quick Boys creates 24% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 100 away

creates per match

Quick Boys
1.98
HHC
1.53

allows per match

Quick Boys
1.23
HHC
1.44

finishing

Quick Boys+0.00on par
HHC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quick Boys ↓

HHC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Quick Boys or draw
69%
Quick Boys or HHC
76%
Draw or HHC
55%

Winning margin

Quick Boys wins by 2+
24%
HHC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Quick Boys 1+ goals
82%
Quick Boys 2+ goals
51%
Quick Boys 3+ goals
24%
HHC 1+ goals
75%
HHC 2+ goals
40%
HHC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Quick Boys (draw refunded)
59%
HHC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quick Boys at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

HHC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quick Boys attack 1.98 + HHC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

HHC attack 1.53 + Quick Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Quick Boys scores more
45%
level
24%
HHC scores more
31%

Quick Boys at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Quick Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quick Boys vs HHC

Quick Boys beat HHC 3-2 in Tweede Divisie on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Zuid in Katwijk.