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Quick Boys vs ACV — Tweede Divisie 2019

Quick Boys
Quick Boys
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ACV
ACV
3/8/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Nieuw Zuid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Quick Boys53%
×Draw22%
ACV24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quick Boys
1.93
ACV
1.24

Quick Boys creates 56% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 51 away

creates per match

Quick Boys
1.98
ACV
1.25

allows per match

Quick Boys
1.23
ACV
1.88

finishing

Quick Boys+0.00on par
ACV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quick Boys ↓

ACV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Quick Boys or draw
76%
Quick Boys or ACV
78%
Draw or ACV
47%

Winning margin

Quick Boys wins by 2+
31%
ACV wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Quick Boys 1+ goals
85%
Quick Boys 2+ goals
57%
Quick Boys 3+ goals
30%
ACV 1+ goals
71%
ACV 2+ goals
35%
ACV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Quick Boys (draw refunded)
69%
ACV (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quick Boys at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

ACV away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quick Boys attack 1.98 + ACV defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.93

ACV attack 1.25 + Quick Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Quick Boys scores more
53%
level
22%
ACV scores more
24%

Quick Boys at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Quick Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Quick Boys 3–1 ACV

Quick Boys beat ACV 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Zuid in Katwijk.