Quevilly 1–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Quevilly

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Valenciennes

A. Diaby 40'

U. Bonnet 29'

2/19/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Quevilly42%

×Draw27%

Valenciennes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuevillyExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

Quevilly

1.33

Valenciennes

1.08

Quevilly creates 23% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 108 away

1.24

creates per match

0.90

1.27

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Quevilly

1.24

Valenciennes

0.90

allows per match

Quevilly

1.27

Valenciennes

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quevilly+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quevilly ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quevilly or draw

70%

Quevilly or Valenciennes

73%

Draw or Valenciennes

58%

Winning margin

Quevilly wins by 2+

19%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Quevilly 1+ goals

74%

Quevilly 2+ goals

38%

Quevilly 3+ goals

15%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

66%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

29%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Quevilly (draw refunded)

58%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quevilly at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.43 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quevilly attack 1.24 + Valenciennes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Quevilly defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Quevilly scores more

42%

level

27%

Valenciennes scores more

30%

Quevilly at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Lejeune

Quevilly · G

7.6

Match Events

18'

27'

29'

40'

54'

61'

G. Gbellé← F. Jozefzoon

62'

D. Bansais← N. Sissoko

70'

Sambou Yatabare

72'

I. Soumaré← C. Sabaly

73'

G. Sangaré← A. Diaby

76'

Garland Gbelle

82'

N. Diliberto← S. Yatabaré

86'

A. Boutoutaou← F. Ayité

87'

Quentin Lecoeuche

90+1'

C. Timite← U. Bonnet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QuevillyValenciennes

Overview

56%Possession44%

4Total Shots15

6Corners8

24Fouls15

Shots

4Total Shots15

2On Target7

0Off Target5

2Blocked3

3Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

327Total Passes241

208Accurate Passes138

64%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

24Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides6