Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Quevilly vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Quevilly
Quevilly
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
2/3/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Quevilly36%
×Draw27%
Guingamp36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quevilly
1.25
Guingamp
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 125 away

creates per match

Quevilly
1.24
Guingamp
1.24

allows per match

Quevilly
1.27
Guingamp
1.26

finishing

Quevilly+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quevilly ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Quevilly or draw
64%
Quevilly or Guingamp
73%
Draw or Guingamp
64%

Winning margin

Quevilly wins by 2+
16%
Guingamp wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Quevilly 1+ goals
71%
Quevilly 2+ goals
36%
Quevilly 3+ goals
13%
Guingamp 1+ goals
71%
Guingamp 2+ goals
36%
Guingamp 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Quevilly (draw refunded)
50%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quevilly at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quevilly attack 1.24 + Guingamp defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Guingamp attack 1.24 + Quevilly defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Quevilly scores more
36%
level
27%
Guingamp scores more
36%

Quevilly at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quevilly vs Guingamp

Quevilly beat Guingamp 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Robert Diochon in Le Petit-Quevilly.