Quevilly 2–1 Concarneau: Result & Stats

Quevilly

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Concarneau

T. Pionnier 61'

I. Bouneb 55'

Y. Soukouna 4'

2/12/2026

League #63 · Round 21Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Quevilly37%

×Draw30%

Concarneau33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuevillyExpected goals in this matchConcarneau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.03

Quevilly

1.10

Concarneau

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.11

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Quevilly

1.11

Concarneau

0.95

allows per match

Quevilly

1.11

Concarneau

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quevilly+0.00on par

Concarneau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quevilly ↓

Concarneau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Quevilly or draw

67%

Quevilly or Concarneau

70%

Draw or Concarneau

63%

Winning margin

Quevilly wins by 2+

15%

Concarneau wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Quevilly 1+ goals

67%

Quevilly 2+ goals

30%

Quevilly 3+ goals

10%

Concarneau 1+ goals

64%

Concarneau 2+ goals

28%

Concarneau 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Quevilly (draw refunded)

53%

Concarneau (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quevilly at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Concarneau away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quevilly attack 1.11 + Concarneau defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Concarneau attack 0.95 + Quevilly defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Quevilly scores more

37%

level

30%

Concarneau scores more

33%

Quevilly at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Y. Soukouna↳ G. Gbelle

8'

43'

55'

61'

63'

67'

69'

72'

K. Diliwidi← J. Ndiaye

79'

F. Da Silva← B. Etcheverria

79'

J. Tell← S. Baldoni

80'

N. Bouekou← B. Traore

80'

A. Zinga← J. Atangana

86'

S. Inquel← R. Amede Kabongo

90+4'

A. Zinga

90+1'

J. Leborgne← I. Bouneb

Quevilly

Concarneau

1

26

4

6

5

▼

Etcheverr

8

Picouleau

10

A

Gbelle

23

▼

Goujon

19

▼

Kabongo

21

▼

Baldoni

11

⚽

Soukouna

1

Djoco

27

⚽

15

26

21

10

⚽

▼

Bouneb

6

A

Njike

14

▼

Atangana

24

Mandengue

28

▼

Traore

25

▼

Ndiaye

Manager: David Carre

72'▲K. Diliwidi←▼J. Ndiaye

80'▲N. Bouekou←▼B. Traore

80'▲A. Zinga←▼J. Atangana

90+1'▲J. Leborgne←▼I. Bouneb

Quevilly substitutes

23Mounsesse8Bouekou18Leborgne11Diliwidi17Zinga

Manager: Stephane Rossi

69'▲M. Ntumi←▼L. Goujon

79'▲F. Da Silva←▼B. Etcheverria

79'▲J. Tell←▼S. Baldoni

86'▲S. Inquel←▼R. Amede Kabongo

Concarneau substitutes

40Patron3Inquel18Silva20Ntumi9Tell