Royal Excel Mouscron 1–1 Charleroi: Result & Stats

Royal Excel Mouscron

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Charleroi

A. Ciranni 25'

K. Rezaei 77'

12/21/2019

Jupiler Pro League · Round 20Stade Le Canonnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Royal Excel Mouscron40%

×Draw27%

Charleroi33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Royal Excel MouscronExpected goals in this matchCharleroi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.19

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.34

Charleroi

1.19

Royal Excel Mouscron creates 13% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 143 away

1.19

creates per match

1.34

1.04

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.19

Charleroi

1.34

allows per match

Royal Excel Mouscron

1.04

Charleroi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Royal Excel Mouscron+0.00on par

Charleroi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Excel Mouscron ↓

Charleroi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Royal Excel Mouscron or draw

67%

Royal Excel Mouscron or Charleroi

73%

Draw or Charleroi

60%

Winning margin

Royal Excel Mouscron wins by 2+

18%

Charleroi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Royal Excel Mouscron 1+ goals

74%

Royal Excel Mouscron 2+ goals

39%

Royal Excel Mouscron 3+ goals

15%

Charleroi 1+ goals

70%

Charleroi 2+ goals

33%

Charleroi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Royal Excel Mouscron (draw refunded)

55%

Charleroi (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.19 + Charleroi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Charleroi attack 1.34 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Royal Excel Mouscron scores more

40%

level

27%

Charleroi scores more

33%

Royal Excel Mouscron at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Royal Excel Mouscron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

B. Godeau← Joan Campins

25'

A. Ciranni↳ Aleix García

39'

Fabrice Olinga

47'

Dorian Dessoleil

56'

S. Nicholson← D. Henen

63'

Maxime Busi

71'

Frank Boya

76'

N. Antonov← F. Olinga

77'

K. Rezaei↳ S. Nicholson

85'

Stipe Perica

85'

F. Tsadjout← M. Bruno

87'

A. Ippolito← B. Van Durmen

90'

Bruno Godeau

90'

Nemanja Antonov

Statistics

RoyalCharleroi

Overview

4Corners7

Discipline

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0