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Quepos Cambute vs AD Sarchí — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AD Sarchí
AD Sarchí
1/14/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio de Damas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Quepos Cambute51%
×Draw23%
AD Sarchí26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quepos Cambute
1.77
AD Sarchí
1.20

Quepos Cambute creates 48% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 63 away

creates per match

Quepos Cambute
1.94
AD Sarchí
1.40

allows per match

Quepos Cambute
1.00
AD Sarchí
1.59

finishing

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par
AD Sarchí+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quepos Cambute ↓

AD Sarchí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Quepos Cambute or draw
74%
Quepos Cambute or AD Sarchí
77%
Draw or AD Sarchí
49%

Winning margin

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
28%
AD Sarchí wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
83%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
53%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
26%
AD Sarchí 1+ goals
70%
AD Sarchí 2+ goals
34%
AD Sarchí 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
66%
AD Sarchí (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quepos Cambute at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

AD Sarchí away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.59 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quepos Cambute attack 1.94 + AD Sarchí defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

AD Sarchí attack 1.40 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Quepos Cambute scores more
51%
level
23%
AD Sarchí scores more
26%

Quepos Cambute at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Quepos Cambute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quepos Cambute vs AD Sarchí

Quepos Cambute beat AD Sarchí 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Damas in Quepos.