AD Sarchí 1–3 Quepos Cambute: Result & Stats

AD Sarchí

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Quepos Cambute

10/12/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

AD Sarchí48%

×Draw23%

Quepos Cambute29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD SarchíExpected goals in this matchQuepos Cambute

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.35

AD Sarchí

1.81

Quepos Cambute

1.35

AD Sarchí creates 34% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 71 away

1.82

creates per match

1.59

1.11

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AD Sarchí

1.82

Quepos Cambute

1.59

allows per match

AD Sarchí

1.11

Quepos Cambute

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Sarchí+0.00on par

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Sarchí ↓

Quepos Cambute →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

AD Sarchí or draw

71%

AD Sarchí or Quepos Cambute

77%

Draw or Quepos Cambute

52%

Winning margin

AD Sarchí wins by 2+

26%

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AD Sarchí 1+ goals

84%

AD Sarchí 2+ goals

54%

AD Sarchí 3+ goals

27%

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

74%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

39%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AD Sarchí (draw refunded)

63%

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Sarchí at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Sarchí attack 1.82 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + AD Sarchí defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AD Sarchí scores more

48%

level

23%

Quepos Cambute scores more

29%

AD Sarchí at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AD Sarchí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff