Queens Park Rangers 5–0 Saltdean United W

Queens Park Rangers

5 – 0

Saltdean United W

12/1/2024

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Powerday Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queens Park Rangers78%

×Draw12%

Saltdean United W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queens Park RangersExpected goals in this matchSaltdean United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.92

1.50

Queens Park Rangers

3.92

Saltdean United W

1.50

Queens Park Rangers creates 161% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

5.33

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Queens Park Rangers

5.33

Saltdean United W

2.00

allows per match

Queens Park Rangers

1.00

Saltdean United W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queens Park Rangers+0.00on par

Saltdean United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queens Park Rangers ↓

Saltdean United W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Queens Park Rangers or draw

89%

Queens Park Rangers or Saltdean United W

88%

Draw or Saltdean United W

22%

Winning margin

Queens Park Rangers wins by 2+

61%

Saltdean United W wins by 2+

Team goals

Queens Park Rangers 1+ goals

98%

Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals

89%

Queens Park Rangers 3+ goals

72%

Saltdean United W 1+ goals

78%

Saltdean United W 2+ goals

44%

Saltdean United W 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Queens Park Rangers (draw refunded)

88%

Saltdean United W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Queens Park Rangers at home — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Saltdean United W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Queens Park Rangers attack 5.33 + Saltdean United W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.92

Saltdean United W attack 2.00 + Queens Park Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Queens Park Rangers scores more

78%

level

12%

Saltdean United W scores more

11%

Queens Park Rangers at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Queens Park Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff