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Queens Park Rangers vs Bromley W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Queens Park Rangers
Queens Park Rangers
FT
11 – 0
Bromley W
Bromley W
11/14/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Powerday Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queens Park Rangers82%
×Draw10%
Bromley W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queens Park Rangers
4.42
Bromley W
1.50

Queens Park Rangers creates 195% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Queens Park Rangers
5.33
Bromley W
2.00

allows per match

Queens Park Rangers
1.00
Bromley W
3.50

finishing

Queens Park Rangers+0.00on par
Bromley W+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queens Park Rangers ↓

Bromley W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Queens Park Rangers or draw
92%
Queens Park Rangers or Bromley W
90%
Draw or Bromley W
18%

Winning margin

Queens Park Rangers wins by 2+
66%
Bromley W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Queens Park Rangers 1+ goals
99%
Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals
92%
Queens Park Rangers 3+ goals
78%
Bromley W 1+ goals
78%
Bromley W 2+ goals
44%
Bromley W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Queens Park Rangers (draw refunded)
91%
Bromley W (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queens Park Rangers at home — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bromley W away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queens Park Rangers attack 5.33 + Bromley W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 4.42

Bromley W attack 2.00 + Queens Park Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Queens Park Rangers scores more
82%
level
10%
Bromley W scores more
8%

Queens Park Rangers at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Queens Park Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Queens Park Rangers 11–0 Bromley W

Queens Park Rangers beat Bromley W 11-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at The Powerday Stadium in London.