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Queens Park Rangers vs Billericay Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Queens Park Rangers
Queens Park Rangers
FT
0 – 3
Billericay Town W
Billericay Town W
11/28/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Powerday Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queens Park Rangers55%
×Draw17%
Billericay Town W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queens Park Rangers
3.42
Billericay Town W
2.50

Queens Park Rangers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Queens Park Rangers
5.33
Billericay Town W
4.00

allows per match

Queens Park Rangers
1.00
Billericay Town W
1.50

finishing

Queens Park Rangers+0.00on par
Billericay Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queens Park Rangers ↓

Billericay Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Queens Park Rangers or draw
72%
Queens Park Rangers or Billericay Town W
83%
Draw or Billericay Town W
45%

Winning margin

Queens Park Rangers wins by 2+
37%
Billericay Town W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Queens Park Rangers 1+ goals
97%
Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals
85%
Queens Park Rangers 3+ goals
64%
Billericay Town W 1+ goals
92%
Billericay Town W 2+ goals
71%
Billericay Town W 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Queens Park Rangers (draw refunded)
66%
Billericay Town W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queens Park Rangers at home — creates 5.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Billericay Town W away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queens Park Rangers attack 5.33 + Billericay Town W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 3.42

Billericay Town W attack 4.00 + Queens Park Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Queens Park Rangers scores more
55%
level
17%
Billericay Town W scores more
28%

Queens Park Rangers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Queens Park Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Queens Park Rangers vs Billericay Town W

Billericay Town W beat Queens Park Rangers 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at The Powerday Stadium in London.