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Queen's University vs Dollingstown — League #561 2026

Queen's University
Queen's University
FT
1 – 0
Dollingstown
Dollingstown
3/25/2023League #561League #561 · Round 21Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Queen's University50%
×Draw21%
Dollingstown29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen's University
2.10
Dollingstown
1.57

Queen's University creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

creates per match

Queen's University
2.64
Dollingstown
1.50

allows per match

Queen's University
1.64
Dollingstown
1.55

finishing

Queen's University+0.00on par
Dollingstown+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's University ↓

Dollingstown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Queen's University or draw
71%
Queen's University or Dollingstown
79%
Draw or Dollingstown
50%

Winning margin

Queen's University wins by 2+
29%
Dollingstown wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Queen's University 1+ goals
88%
Queen's University 2+ goals
62%
Queen's University 3+ goals
35%
Dollingstown 1+ goals
79%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
46%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Queen's University (draw refunded)
63%
Dollingstown (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's University at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Dollingstown away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's University attack 2.64 + Dollingstown defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dollingstown attack 1.50 + Queen's University defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Queen's University scores more
50%
level
21%
Dollingstown scores more
29%

Queen's University at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Queen's University 1–0 Dollingstown

Queen's University beat Dollingstown 1-0 in League #561 on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Queen's University Malone Playing Fields in Belfast.