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Queen's University vs Bangor — League #561 2026

Queen's University
Queen's University
FT
1 – 2
Bangor
Bangor
12/3/2022League #561League #561 · Round 9Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Queen's University35%
×Draw22%
Bangor43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen's University
1.75
Bangor
1.94

Bangor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Queen's University
2.64
Bangor
2.23

allows per match

Queen's University
1.64
Bangor
0.85

finishing

Queen's University+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's University ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Queen's University or draw
57%
Queen's University or Bangor
78%
Draw or Bangor
65%

Winning margin

Queen's University wins by 2+
18%
Bangor wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Queen's University 1+ goals
83%
Queen's University 2+ goals
52%
Queen's University 3+ goals
25%
Bangor 1+ goals
86%
Bangor 2+ goals
58%
Bangor 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Queen's University (draw refunded)
45%
Bangor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's University at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's University attack 2.64 + Bangor defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bangor attack 2.23 + Queen's University defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Queen's University scores more
35%
level
22%
Bangor scores more
43%

Bangor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #561: Queen's University 1–2 Bangor

Bangor beat Queen's University 2-1 in League #561 on December 3, 2022.

The match was played at Queen's University Malone Playing Fields in Belfast.