Queen's Park 1–1 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Raith Rovers

1/27/2026

League #182 · Quarter-finalsThe City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queen's Park29%

×Draw32%

Raith Rovers38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.00

Queen's Park

0.83

Raith Rovers

1.00

Raith Rovers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Queen's Park

1.33

Raith Rovers

1.33

allows per match

Queen's Park

0.67

Raith Rovers

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

62%

Queen's Park or Raith Rovers

68%

Draw or Raith Rovers

71%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

10%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

56%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

20%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

5%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

63%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

26%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

43%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 1.33 + Raith Rovers defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Raith Rovers attack 1.33 + Queen's Park defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Queen's Park scores more

29%

level

32%

Raith Rovers scores more

38%

Raith Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff