Queen's Park 6–0 Kelty Hearts: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kelty Hearts

J. Turner 90', 57'

R. MacGregor 61', 42'

S. Welsh 32'

D. Thomas 11'

7/27/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 7The City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Queen's Park88%

×Draw8%

Kelty Hearts4%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchKelty Hearts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.75

0.75

Queen's Park

3.75

Kelty Hearts

0.75

Queen's Park creates 400% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

4.00

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Queen's Park

4.00

Kelty Hearts

1.00

allows per match

Queen's Park

0.50

Kelty Hearts

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Kelty Hearts →

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

96%

Queen's Park or Kelty Hearts

92%

Draw or Kelty Hearts

12%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

73%

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

97%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

88%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

70%

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

53%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

17%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

96%

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 4.00 + Kelty Hearts defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.75

Kelty Hearts attack 1.00 + Queen's Park defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 88%?"

Queen's Park scores more

88%

level

Kelty Hearts scores more

Queen's Park at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

17'

32'

42'

46'

53'

56'

57'

61'

63'

65'

R. Cunningham← C. Johnston

70'

J. Hinds← L. Longridge

70'

L. McLeish← Z. Rudden

77'

J. Hinds

84'

C. Flatman

86'

T. McDonnell← D. Thomas

89'

M. MacKenzie← J. Scott

90'

J. Turner

Queen's

Kelty

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽2A

▼

⚽A

▼

Thomas

▼

Rudden

Manager: C. Davidson

70'▲J. Hinds←▼L. Longridge

70'▲L. McLeish←▼Z. Rudden

86'▲T. McDonnell←▼D. Thomas

89'▲M. MacKenzie←▼J. Scott

Queen's Park substitutes

19Hinds18McLeish42McDonnell44MacKenzie21Wills16Reid6Ujdur47Collie37Hickey-Fugaccia

17'▲R. Cole←▼L. McCarvel

46'▲B. Owens←▼M. Miller

63'▲L. Owens←▼L. Brown

65'▲R. Cunningham←▼C. Johnston

Kelty Hearts substitutes

11Cole6Owens15Owens10Cunningham22Walsh21Adamson