Queen's Park 1–4 Inverness CT: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Inverness CT

J. Turner 10'

B. McKay 80' (pen)

D. Wotherspoon 75'

N. Ujdur 59'

M. Anderson 21'

12/9/2023

League #180 · Round 15Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Queen's Park28%

×Draw25%

Inverness CT47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchInverness CT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.57

Queen's Park

1.17

Inverness CT

1.57

Inverness CT creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 27 away

1.16

creates per match

1.63

1.51

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Queen's Park

1.16

Inverness CT

1.63

allows per match

Queen's Park

1.51

Inverness CT

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Inverness CT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

53%

Queen's Park or Inverness CT

75%

Draw or Inverness CT

72%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

11%

Inverness CT wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

69%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

33%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

11%

Inverness CT 1+ goals

79%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

46%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

38%

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 1.16 + Inverness CT defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Inverness CT attack 1.63 + Queen's Park defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Queen's Park scores more

28%

level

25%

Inverness CT scores more

47%

Inverness CT at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

17'

21'

59'

60'

L. Longridge← J. Thomson

61'

B. Hepburn← S. McKinstry

66'

A. Bannon

70'

C. Bruce← T. Robson

70'

W. Tizzard← J. Spong

75'

D. Wotherspoon↳ M. Anderson

80'

B. McKayPenalty

81'

L. Longstaff← N. Shaw

83'

A. Brooks← B. McKay

83'

H. Lodovica← D. Wotherspoon

84'

J. Davidson← W. Duffy

90+1'

S. Welsh← C. Gilmour

Queen's

Inverness

1

Ridgers

6

Devine

2

▼

Duffy

20

Boyes

3

A

Harper

44

⚽

Ujdur

30

⚽

▼

Wotherspo

7

▼

Gilmour

15

⚽A

Anderson

22

A

▼

Shaw

9

⚽

▼

McKay

1

Ferrie

3

▼

Robson

2

McPherson

8

▼

Thomson

6

▼

Spong

18

▼

McKinstry

20

⚽

Turner

4

Bannon

22

Reid

11

A

Thomas

9

Paton

Manager: R. Veldman

60'▲L. Longridge←▼J. Thomson

61'▲B. Hepburn←▼S. McKinstry

70'▲C. Bruce←▼T. Robson

70'▲W. Tizzard←▼J. Spong

Queen's Park substitutes

23Longridge7Hepburn16Bruce15Tizzard28McCormick14Healy33Mauchin31Kane27Jarrett

Manager: D. Ferguson

81'▲L. Longstaff←▼N. Shaw

83'▲A. Brooks←▼B. McKay

83'▲H. Lodovica←▼D. Wotherspoon

84'▲J. Davidson←▼W. Duffy

90+1'▲S. Welsh←▼C. Gilmour

Inverness CT substitutes

19Longstaff24Brooks18Lodovica14Davidson4Welsh5Delaney21Mackay34Sheridan29Thompson