Queen's Park 4–1 Forfar Athletic: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Forfar Athletic

7/12/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Queen's Park64%

×Draw19%

Forfar Athletic17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchForfar Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.10

Queen's Park

2.33

Forfar Athletic

1.10

Queen's Park creates 112% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

2.40

creates per match

0.87

1.33

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Queen's Park

2.40

Forfar Athletic

0.87

allows per match

Queen's Park

1.33

Forfar Athletic

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Forfar Athletic →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

83%

Queen's Park or Forfar Athletic

81%

Draw or Forfar Athletic

36%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

42%

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

90%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

67%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

41%

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

67%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

30%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

79%

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 2.40 + Forfar Athletic defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.33

Forfar Athletic attack 0.87 + Queen's Park defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Queen's Park scores more

64%

level

19%

Forfar Athletic scores more

17%

Queen's Park at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff