Queen's Park 3–1 Brora Rangers: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Brora Rangers

N. Todorov 73'

M. Ruth 61'

A. Connolly 27'

S. Nixon 16'

7/11/2026

League Cup · Group StageThe City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Queen's Park74%

×Draw15%

Brora Rangers11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchBrora Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

0.95

Queen's Park

2.70

Brora Rangers

0.95

Queen's Park creates 184% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

2.40

creates per match

0.57

1.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Queen's Park

2.40

Brora Rangers

0.57

allows per match

Queen's Park

1.33

Brora Rangers

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Brora Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

89%

Queen's Park or Brora Rangers

85%

Draw or Brora Rangers

26%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

53%

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

93%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

75%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

50%

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

61%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

25%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

87%

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 2.40 + Brora Rangers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Brora Rangers attack 0.57 + Queen's Park defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Queen's Park scores more

74%

level

15%

Brora Rangers scores more

11%

Queen's Park at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

S. Nixon↳ S. Sutherland

27'

A. Connolly

35'

A. Connolly

46'

C. Smith← D. Carrick

61'

M. Ruth↳ C. Pignatiello

62'

M. Ewan← A. Sutherland

71'

N. Todorov← M. Ruth

72'

L. Longridge← S. Martin

72'

T. McDonnell← J. Hamilton

73'

B. Gardiner← C. Bunce

73'

N. Todorov↳ C. Pignatiello

73'

J. Wallace← J. Wallace

76'

A. Wilson← J. Anderson

83'

B. Brannan← M. MacKenzie

86'

L. Longridge

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff