Queen's Park 2–1 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Queen's Park

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Arbroath

S. Drozd 45'

A. Connolly 25'

S. Robinson 19'

1/31/2026

League #180 · Round 24The City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Queen's Park42%

×Draw26%

Arbroath32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's ParkExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.23

Queen's Park

1.46

Arbroath

1.23

Queen's Park creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 21 away

1.16

creates per match

0.95

1.51

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Queen's Park

1.16

Arbroath

0.95

allows per match

Queen's Park

1.51

Arbroath

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's Park ↓

Arbroath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Queen's Park or draw

68%

Queen's Park or Arbroath

74%

Draw or Arbroath

58%

Winning margin

Queen's Park wins by 2+

20%

Arbroath wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Queen's Park 1+ goals

77%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

43%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

18%

Arbroath 1+ goals

71%

Arbroath 2+ goals

35%

Arbroath 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

57%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's Park at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Arbroath away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's Park attack 1.16 + Arbroath defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

Arbroath attack 0.95 + Queen's Park defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Queen's Park scores more

42%

level

26%

Arbroath scores more

32%

Queen's Park at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Queen's Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

S. Robinson↳ R. Dow

25'

A. Connolly↳ G. Savoury

45'

S. Drozd↳ G. Savoury

60'

H. Fieldson

61'

R. Lamie← H. Fieldson

63'

E. Murray

70'

R. Callachan← H. Cochrane

71'

D. Mebude← G. Reilly

82'

M. MacKenzie← G. Savoury

82'

C. Watson← S. Stewart

86'

88'

90+1'

90+1'

Queen's

Arbroath

1

McAdams

12

▼

6

2

4

28

⚽

Robinson

25

▼

Cochrane

17

Marshall

8

Flynn

11

A

Dow

10

▼

1

12

4

22

3

▼

Fieldson

11

⚽

Connolly

8

MacGregor

10

A

▼

Savoury

7

Longridge

28

⚽

▼

Drozd

27

Smith

Manager: Sean Crighton

61'▲R. Lamie←▼H. Fieldson

82'▲M. MacKenzie←▼G. Savoury

88'▲L. McLeish←▼S. Drozd

Queen's Park substitutes

31Sliwinski16Waugh17McDonnell20Bradley21McLean23Sowa25MacKenzie29McLeish35Lamie

Manager: Jack Colin

70'▲R. Callachan←▼H. Cochrane

71'▲D. Mebude←▼G. Reilly

82'▲C. Watson←▼S. Stewart

Arbroath substitutes

21Pettigrew16Watson18Gillie3Hamilton27Enem7Gold14Callachan62Mebude