Queen of the South 2–2 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

ST Mirren

10/10/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Queen of the South39%

×Draw24%

ST Mirren37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.54

Queen of the South

1.57

ST Mirren

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.57

1.50

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Queen of the South

2.00

ST Mirren

1.57

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.50

ST Mirren

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

63%

Queen of the South or ST Mirren

76%

Draw or ST Mirren

61%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

19%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

79%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

46%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

21%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

79%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

45%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

51%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + ST Mirren defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

ST Mirren attack 1.57 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Queen of the South scores more

39%

level

24%

ST Mirren scores more

37%

Queen of the South at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff