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Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts — League Cup 2025

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
B. Luissint 120+5' (pen)
L. Smith 120+4' (pen)
T. Charters 120+3' (pen)
N. Clark 31'
D. Corr 120+6' (pen)
K. Higginbotham 120+4' (pen)
A. Ferguson 120+3' (pen)
C. McManus 120+2' (pen)
R. Cunningham 28'
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StagePalmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Queen of the South62%
×Draw20%
Kelty Hearts18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
2.25
Kelty Hearts
1.13

Queen of the South creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.25
Kelty Hearts
3.50

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Kelty Hearts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
82%
Queen of the South or Kelty Hearts
80%
Draw or Kelty Hearts
38%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
40%
Kelty Hearts wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
89%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
65%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
39%
Kelty Hearts 1+ goals
68%
Kelty Hearts 2+ goals
31%
Kelty Hearts 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
77%
Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.00 + Kelty Hearts defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Kelty Hearts attack 1.00 + Queen of the South defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Queen of the South scores more
62%
level
20%
Kelty Hearts scores more
18%

Queen of the South at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
R. Cunningham↳ A. Ferguson
31'
N. Clark↳ L. Smith
66'
C. McQueen
69'
K. Higginbotham← R. Shanley
81'
J. Kelly← K. Guthrie
82'
C. Thomson← F. Moffett
87'
B. Luissint← N. Clark
88'
G. Walker← C. Flatman
120+1'
R. CunninghamMissed penalty
120+1'
J. StottMissed penalty
120+2'
C. McManusPenalty
120+2'
Z. MacKenzieMissed penalty
120+3'
A. FergusonPenalty
120+3'
T. ChartersPenalty
120+4'
K. HigginbothamPenalty
120+4'
L. SmithPenalty
120+5'
L. MooreMissed penalty
120+5'
B. LuissintPenalty
120+6'
D. CorrPenalty
120+6'
J. HannahMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Queen of the South 1–1 Kelty Hearts

Queen of the South and Kelty Hearts drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: R. Cunningham (28'), N. Clark (31'), C. McManus (120+2' pen), A. Ferguson (120+3' pen), T. Charters (120+3' pen), K. Higginbotham (120+4' pen), L. Smith (120+4' pen), B. Luissint (120+5' pen), D. Corr (120+6' pen).

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.