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Queen of the South vs Hibernian — FA Cup 2019

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hibernian
Hibernian
4/5/2021FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundPalmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Queen of the South12%
×Draw18%
Hibernian70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
0.84
Hibernian
2.31

Hibernian creates 175% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 14 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
0.75
Hibernian
1.86

allows per match

Queen of the South
2.75
Hibernian
0.93

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
30%
Queen of the South or Hibernian
82%
Draw or Hibernian
88%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
4%
Hibernian wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
57%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
21%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
5%
Hibernian 1+ goals
90%
Hibernian 2+ goals
67%
Hibernian 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
15%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 0.75 + Hibernian defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Hibernian attack 1.86 + Queen of the South defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Queen of the South scores more
12%
level
18%
Hibernian scores more
70%

Hibernian at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Queen of the South vs Hibernian

Hibernian beat Queen of the South 3-1 in FA Cup on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.