Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Queen of the South vs GAP Connah S Quay FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
A. Sharif 44'
6/27/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queen of the South35%
×Draw28%
GAP Connah S Quay FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
1.17
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.75
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.33

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
GAP Connah S Quay FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

GAP Connah S Quay FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
63%
Queen of the South or GAP Connah S Quay FC
72%
Draw or GAP Connah S Quay FC
65%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
15%
GAP Connah S Quay FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
69%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
33%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
11%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 1+ goals
70%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 2+ goals
34%
GAP Connah S Quay FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
49%
GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

GAP Connah S Quay FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.00 + GAP Connah S Quay FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

GAP Connah S Quay FC attack 0.67 + Queen of the South defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Queen of the South scores more
35%
level
28%
GAP Connah S Quay FC scores more
37%

GAP Connah S Quay FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "GAP Connah S Quay FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
A. Sharif

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Queen of the South vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

GAP Connah S Quay FC beat Queen of the South 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 27, 2026.

Goals: A. Sharif (44').