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Queen of the South vs East Kilbride — League Cup 2018

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
East Kilbride
East Kilbride
7/18/2017League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Palmerston Park (Dumfries)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Queen of the South55%
×Draw20%
East Kilbride25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
2.35
East Kilbride
1.54

Queen of the South creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
2.00
East Kilbride
1.57

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.50
East Kilbride
2.71

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
East Kilbride+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

East Kilbride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
75%
Queen of the South or East Kilbride
80%
Draw or East Kilbride
45%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
34%
East Kilbride wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
90%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
68%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
41%
East Kilbride 1+ goals
79%
East Kilbride 2+ goals
45%
East Kilbride 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
69%
East Kilbride (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

East Kilbride away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + East Kilbride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.35

East Kilbride attack 1.57 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Queen of the South scores more
55%
level
20%
East Kilbride scores more
25%

Queen of the South at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Queen of the South vs East Kilbride

Queen of the South and East Kilbride drew 0-0 in League Cup on July 18, 2017.

The match was played at Palmerston Park (Dumfries).