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Queen of the South vs Dundee Utd — FA Cup 2019

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
11/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundPalmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Queen of the South17%
×Draw21%
Dundee Utd62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
0.96
Dundee Utd
2.04

Dundee Utd creates 113% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
0.75
Dundee Utd
1.33

allows per match

Queen of the South
2.75
Dundee Utd
1.17

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
38%
Queen of the South or Dundee Utd
79%
Draw or Dundee Utd
83%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
6%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
62%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
25%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
7%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
87%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
60%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
22%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 0.75 + Dundee Utd defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Dundee Utd attack 1.33 + Queen of the South defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Queen of the South scores more
17%
level
21%
Dundee Utd scores more
62%

Dundee Utd at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Queen of the South 2–2 Dundee Utd

Queen of the South and Dundee Utd drew 2-2 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.