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Queen of the South vs Annan Athletic — League Cup 2018

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Annan Athletic
Annan Athletic
7/9/2022League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Queen of the South63%
×Draw18%
Annan Athletic19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
2.50
Annan Athletic
1.32

Queen of the South creates 89% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.15

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.50
Annan Athletic
3.00

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Annan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
81%
Queen of the South or Annan Athletic
82%
Draw or Annan Athletic
37%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
41%
Annan Athletic wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
92%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
71%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
45%
Annan Athletic 1+ goals
73%
Annan Athletic 2+ goals
38%
Annan Athletic 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
77%
Annan Athletic (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + Annan Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Annan Athletic attack 1.15 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Queen of the South scores more
63%
level
18%
Annan Athletic scores more
19%

Queen of the South at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Queen of the South 2–3 Annan Athletic

Annan Athletic beat Queen of the South 3-2 in League Cup on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.