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Queen of the South vs Aberdeen — League Cup 2025

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
7/13/2024League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Queen of the South8%
×Draw19%
Aberdeen72%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
0.50
Aberdeen
1.96

Aberdeen creates 292% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
1.00
Aberdeen
2.67

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.25
Aberdeen
0.00

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–117%
0–216%
0–311%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
28%
Queen of the South or Aberdeen
81%
Draw or Aberdeen
92%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
2%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
39%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
9%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
1%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
86%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
58%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
11%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.00 + Aberdeen defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Aberdeen attack 2.67 + Queen of the South defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Queen of the South scores more
8%
level
19%
Aberdeen scores more
72%

Aberdeen at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Queen of the South 0–3 Aberdeen

Aberdeen beat Queen of the South 3-0 in League Cup on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.