Quanzhou Yassin 0–2 Zhuhai Qin'ao: Result & Stats

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Zhuhai Qin'ao

11/12/2022

League Two · Relegation Round - 3Duyun International Football Town No. 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin21%

×Draw31%

Zhuhai Qin'ao49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchZhuhai Qin'ao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

1.19

Quanzhou Yassin

0.66

Zhuhai Qin'ao

1.19

Zhuhai Qin'ao creates 80% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 7 away

0.88

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Zhuhai Qin'ao

1.00

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Zhuhai Qin'ao

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Zhuhai Qin'ao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Zhuhai Qin'ao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–119%

0–211%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

51%

Quanzhou Yassin or Zhuhai Qin'ao

69%

Draw or Zhuhai Qin'ao

79%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

5%

Zhuhai Qin'ao wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

48%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

14%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

3%

Zhuhai Qin'ao 1+ goals

70%

Zhuhai Qin'ao 2+ goals

33%

Zhuhai Qin'ao 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

30%

Zhuhai Qin'ao (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Zhuhai Qin'ao away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Zhuhai Qin'ao defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.66

Zhuhai Qin'ao attack 1.00 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

21%

level

31%

Zhuhai Qin'ao scores more

49%

Zhuhai Qin'ao at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zhuhai Qin'ao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff