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Quanzhou Yassin vs Tai'an Tiankuang — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tai'an Tiankuang
Tai'an Tiankuang
10/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 6Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin32%
×Draw28%
Tai'an Tiankuang39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.09
Tai'an Tiankuang
1.23

Tai'an Tiankuang creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 54 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Tai'an Tiankuang
1.07

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Tai'an Tiankuang
1.31

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Tai'an Tiankuang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Tai'an Tiankuang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
61%
Quanzhou Yassin or Tai'an Tiankuang
72%
Draw or Tai'an Tiankuang
68%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
13%
Tai'an Tiankuang wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
66%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
30%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
10%
Tai'an Tiankuang 1+ goals
71%
Tai'an Tiankuang 2+ goals
35%
Tai'an Tiankuang 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
45%
Tai'an Tiankuang (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Tai'an Tiankuang away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Tai'an Tiankuang defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tai'an Tiankuang attack 1.07 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
32%
level
28%
Tai'an Tiankuang scores more
39%

Tai'an Tiankuang at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tai'an Tiankuang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs Tai'an Tiankuang

Tai'an Tiankuang beat Quanzhou Yassin 2-1 in League Two on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.