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Quanzhou Yassin vs Shenzhen 2028 — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 2028
7/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin30%
×Draw29%
Shenzhen 202841%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.00
Shenzhen 2028
1.23

Shenzhen 2028 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 23 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Shenzhen 2028
1.09

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Shenzhen 2028
1.13

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Shenzhen 2028+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Shenzhen 2028 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
59%
Quanzhou Yassin or Shenzhen 2028
71%
Draw or Shenzhen 2028
70%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
11%
Shenzhen 2028 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
63%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
26%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
8%
Shenzhen 2028 1+ goals
71%
Shenzhen 2028 2+ goals
35%
Shenzhen 2028 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
42%
Shenzhen 2028 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Shenzhen 2028 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Shenzhen 2028 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shenzhen 2028 attack 1.09 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
30%
level
29%
Shenzhen 2028 scores more
41%

Shenzhen 2028 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shenzhen 2028 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 0–1 Shenzhen 2028

Shenzhen 2028 beat Quanzhou Yassin 1-0 in League Two on July 1, 2025.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.