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Quanzhou Yassin vs Inner Mongolia Caoshang. — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
3 – 0
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
10/30/2022League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Duyun International Football Town No. 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin42%
×Draw28%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.31
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.06

Quanzhou Yassin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 8 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
0.75

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
1.75

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Inner Mongolia Caoshang.+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
70%
Quanzhou Yassin or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
72%
Draw or Inner Mongolia Caoshang.
58%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
19%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
73%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
38%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
14%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 1+ goals
65%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 2+ goals
29%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
58%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Inner Mongolia Caoshang. defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Inner Mongolia Caoshang. attack 0.75 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
42%
level
28%
Inner Mongolia Caoshang. scores more
30%

Quanzhou Yassin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 3–0 Inner Mongolia Caoshang.

Quanzhou Yassin beat Inner Mongolia Caoshang. 3-0 in League Two on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Duyun International Football Town No. 7 in Duyun.