Quanzhou Yassin 2–1 Hainan Star: Result & Stats

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hainan Star

3/24/2024

League Two · Round 1Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin41%

×Draw27%

Hainan Star31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchHainan Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.13

Quanzhou Yassin

1.34

Hainan Star

1.13

Quanzhou Yassin creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

0.88

creates per match

0.88

1.38

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Hainan Star

0.88

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Hainan Star

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Hainan Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Hainan Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

69%

Quanzhou Yassin or Hainan Star

73%

Draw or Hainan Star

59%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

19%

Hainan Star wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

74%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

39%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

15%

Hainan Star 1+ goals

68%

Hainan Star 2+ goals

31%

Hainan Star 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

57%

Hainan Star (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Hainan Star away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Hainan Star defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hainan Star attack 0.88 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

41%

level

27%

Hainan Star scores more

31%

Quanzhou Yassin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff