Quanzhou Yassin 0–1 Guangzhou Dandelion

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guangzhou Dandelion

5/10/2025

League Two · Round 9Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin29%

×Draw30%

Guangzhou Dandelion41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchGuangzhou Dandelion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.15

Quanzhou Yassin

0.92

Guangzhou Dandelion

1.15

Guangzhou Dandelion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 23 away

0.88

creates per match

0.91

1.38

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Guangzhou Dandelion

0.91

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Guangzhou Dandelion

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Guangzhou Dandelion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Guangzhou Dandelion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

59%

Quanzhou Yassin or Guangzhou Dandelion

70%

Draw or Guangzhou Dandelion

71%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

10%

Guangzhou Dandelion wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

60%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

23%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

7%

Guangzhou Dandelion 1+ goals

68%

Guangzhou Dandelion 2+ goals

32%

Guangzhou Dandelion 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

42%

Guangzhou Dandelion (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Guangzhou Dandelion away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Guangzhou Dandelion defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Guangzhou Dandelion attack 0.91 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

29%

level

30%

Guangzhou Dandelion scores more

41%

Guangzhou Dandelion at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guangzhou Dandelion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff