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Quang Nam vs Viettel — V.League 1 2019

Quang Nam
Quang Nam
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Viettel
Viettel
6/29/2020V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 7Sân v?n d?ng Tam K?

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Quang Nam35%
×Draw27%
Viettel38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quang Nam
1.25
Viettel
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 90 away

creates per match

Quang Nam
1.43
Viettel
1.22

allows per match

Quang Nam
1.41
Viettel
1.08

finishing

Quang Nam+0.00on par
Viettel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quang Nam ↓

Viettel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Quang Nam or draw
62%
Quang Nam or Viettel
73%
Draw or Viettel
65%

Winning margin

Quang Nam wins by 2+
15%
Viettel wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Quang Nam 1+ goals
71%
Quang Nam 2+ goals
36%
Quang Nam 3+ goals
13%
Viettel 1+ goals
73%
Viettel 2+ goals
38%
Viettel 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Quang Nam (draw refunded)
48%
Viettel (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quang Nam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Viettel away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quang Nam attack 1.43 + Viettel defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Viettel attack 1.22 + Quang Nam defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Quang Nam scores more
35%
level
27%
Viettel scores more
38%

Viettel at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Viettel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quang Nam vs Viettel

Viettel beat Quang Nam 3-0 in V.League 1 on June 29, 2020.

The match was played at Sân v?n d?ng Tam K? in Tam Ky.