Quang Nam 3–1 Sai Gon: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Quang Nam

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sai Gon

7/12/2019

V.League 1 · Round 15Sân vận động Tam Kỳ (Tam Ky Stadium) (Tam Kỳ (Tam Ky))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Quang Nam46%

×Draw24%

Sai Gon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quang NamExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.27

Quang Nam

1.65

Sai Gon

1.27

Quang Nam creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 42 away

1.43

creates per match

1.12

1.41

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Quang Nam

1.43

Sai Gon

1.12

allows per match

Quang Nam

1.41

Sai Gon

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quang Nam ↓

Sai Gon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Quang Nam or draw

70%

Quang Nam or Sai Gon

76%

Draw or Sai Gon

54%

Winning margin

Quang Nam wins by 2+

24%

Sai Gon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Quang Nam 1+ goals

81%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

49%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

23%

Sai Gon 1+ goals

72%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

36%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

61%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quang Nam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 49 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quang Nam attack 1.43 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Quang Nam defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Quang Nam scores more

46%

level

24%

Sai Gon scores more

30%

Quang Nam at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Quang Nam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff