Quang Nam 5–2 Can Tho: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Quang Nam

FT

5 – 2

Can Tho

4/17/2021

V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Tam Kỳ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Quang Nam60%

×Draw21%

Can Tho18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quang NamExpected goals in this matchCan Tho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.98

Quang Nam

1.98

Can Tho

0.98

Quang Nam creates 102% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

1.14

0.83

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Quang Nam

2.00

Can Tho

1.14

allows per match

Quang Nam

0.83

Can Tho

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Can Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quang Nam ↓

Can Tho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Quang Nam or draw

82%

Quang Nam or Can Tho

79%

Draw or Can Tho

40%

Winning margin

Quang Nam wins by 2+

36%

Can Tho wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Quang Nam 1+ goals

86%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

59%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

31%

Can Tho 1+ goals

62%

Can Tho 2+ goals

26%

Can Tho 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

77%

Can Tho (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quang Nam at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Can Tho away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quang Nam attack 2.00 + Can Tho defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Quang Nam defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Quang Nam scores more

60%

level

21%

Can Tho scores more

18%

Quang Nam at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Quang Nam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff