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QPR vs Wolves — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wolves
Wolves
S. Polter 2'
J. Henry 48'
1/23/2016ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Loftus Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

QPR33%
×Draw25%
Wolves42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.31
Wolves
1.51

Wolves creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 19 away

creates per match

QPR
1.47
Wolves
1.53

allows per match

QPR
1.49
Wolves
1.16

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

QPR or draw
58%
QPR or Wolves
75%
Draw or Wolves
67%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
14%
Wolves wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
73%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
Wolves 1+ goals
78%
Wolves 2+ goals
44%
Wolves 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
44%
Wolves (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.47 + Wolves defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wolves attack 1.53 + QPR defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

QPR scores more
33%
level
25%
Wolves scores more
42%

Wolves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
K. McDonaldWolvesWolves · M
8.2

Match Events

2'
S. Polter↳ M. Phillips
48'
J. Henry
73'
T. Chery← K. Henry
82'
G. Saville← D. Edwards
83'
C. Washington← J. Hoilett

Possession

46%QPR

Shots

14QPR

Pass accuracy

46%QPR

Statistics

QPRWolves
Overview
46%Possession54%
14Total Shots13
6Corners1
0Fouls0
Shots
14Total Shots13
5On Target5
8Off Target6
1Blocked2
8Inside Box6
6Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
321Total Passes386
183Accurate Passes253
57%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
0Fouls0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: QPR vs Wolves

QPR and Wolves drew 1-1 in Championship on January 23, 2016.

Goals: S. Polter (2'), J. Henry (48').

Wolves controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Loftus Road Stadium in London.