QPR 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

QPR

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

1/4/2026

Championship · Round 26Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

QPR53%

×Draw25%

Sheffield Wednesday23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.97

QPR

1.62

Sheffield Wednesday

0.97

QPR creates 67% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 19 away

1.34

creates per match

0.81

1.14

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

QPR

1.34

Sheffield Wednesday

0.81

allows per match

QPR

1.14

Sheffield Wednesday

1.90

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

QPR+0.10scores more

Sheffield Wednesday+0.03on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw

77%

QPR or Sheffield Wednesday

75%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

47%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

28%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

80%

QPR 2+ goals

48%

QPR 3+ goals

22%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

62%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

25%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

70%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.90 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.81 + QPR defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

QPR scores more

53%

level

25%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

23%

QPR at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff