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QPR vs Reading — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Reading
Reading
12/29/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw26%
Reading31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.46
Reading
1.21

QPR creates 21% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 112 away

creates per match

QPR
1.42
Reading
0.99

allows per match

QPR
1.42
Reading
1.49

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

QPR or draw
69%
QPR or Reading
74%
Draw or Reading
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
21%
Reading wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
77%
QPR 2+ goals
43%
QPR 3+ goals
18%
Reading 1+ goals
70%
Reading 2+ goals
34%
Reading 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
58%
Reading (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 185 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.42 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Reading attack 0.99 + QPR defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
26%
Reading scores more
31%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
T. LeistnerQPRQPR · D
8.1

Match Events

48'
Jordan Cousins
52'
Josh Scowen
62'
John Swift
68'
John O'Shea
70'
Darnell Furlong
82'
J. Böðvarsson← Y. Meïté
82'
D. Loader← S. Aluko
90+3'
M. Smith← J. Scowen
90'
I. Chair← E. Eze
90'
J. Sims← G. McCleary

Possession

32%QPR

Shots

16QPR

Pass accuracy

46%QPR

Statistics

QPRReading
Overview
32%Possession68%
16Total Shots13
7Corners7
16Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots13
4On Target5
9Off Target4
3Blocked4
9Inside Box7
7Outside Box6
Passing
32%Possession68%
289Total Passes609
206Accurate Passes514
71%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

QPR 0 – 0 Reading

QPR and Reading drew 0-0 in Championship on December 29, 2018.

Reading controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.