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QPR vs Plymouth — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
8/24/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

QPR51%
×Draw25%
Plymouth24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.61
Plymouth
1.03

QPR creates 56% more chances

Season form · 188 home / 46 away

creates per match

QPR
1.39
Plymouth
0.63

allows per match

QPR
1.43
Plymouth
1.83

finishing

QPR+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

QPR or draw
76%
QPR or Plymouth
75%
Draw or Plymouth
49%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
27%
Plymouth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
80%
QPR 2+ goals
48%
QPR 3+ goals
22%
Plymouth 1+ goals
64%
Plymouth 2+ goals
28%
Plymouth 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
68%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.43 · 188 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.39 + Plymouth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Plymouth attack 0.63 + QPR defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

QPR scores more
51%
level
25%
Plymouth scores more
24%

QPR at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

QPR 1 – 1 Plymouth

QPR and Plymouth drew 1-1 in Championship on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.