Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

QPR vs Luton — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Luton
Luton
M. Fox 62'
M. Frey 24'
M. McGuinness 45+2'
1/6/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

QPR47%
×Draw27%
Luton27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.43
Luton
1.01

QPR creates 42% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 13 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Luton
0.90

allows per match

QPR
1.12
Luton
1.54

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
Luton-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
73%
QPR or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
53%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
23%
Luton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
76%
QPR 2+ goals
42%
QPR 3+ goals
17%
Luton 1+ goals
64%
Luton 2+ goals
27%
Luton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
64%
Luton (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.12 · 56 matches

Luton away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Luton defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.43

Luton attack 0.90 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

QPR scores more
47%
level
27%
Luton scores more
27%

QPR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
Z. NelsonLutonLuton · M
8.0

Match Events

24'
M. Frey
45+2'
M. McGuinness↳ Z. Nelson
49'
Jonathan Varane
56'
Tahith Chong
61'
R. Edwards← J. Varane
61'
K. Saito← P. Smyth
62'
M. Fox↳ I. Chair
69'
J. Colback← H. Ashby
69'
A. Lloyd← M. Frey
74'
E. Adebayo← M. Nakamba
77'
J. Brown← Z. Nelson
85'
C. Woodrow← Lamine Fanne
86'
D. Hashioka← T. Holmes
86'
J. Clark← R. Walters
88'
J. Clarke-Salter← K. Morgan

Possession

53%QPR

Shots

15QPR

Pass accuracy

51%QPR

Statistics

QPRLuton
Overview
53%Possession47%
15Total Shots18
2.18Expected Goals (xG)2.21
3Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots18
6On Target4
5Off Target8
4Blocked6
10Inside Box13
5Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
418Total Passes372
347Accurate Passes294
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.47Goals Prevented0.47
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

QPR 2 – 1 Luton

QPR beat Luton 2-1 in Championship on January 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Frey (24'), M. McGuinness (45+2'), M. Fox (62').

QPR controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 18.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.