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QPR vs Luton — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Luton
Luton
N. Wells 28', 20'
E. Eze 3'
J. Collins 48'
H. Cornick 36'
9/14/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

QPR48%
×Draw26%
Luton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.46
Luton
0.98

QPR creates 49% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

creates per match

QPR
1.32
Luton
0.85

allows per match

QPR
1.11
Luton
1.59

finishing

QPR+0.08on par
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
75%
QPR or Luton
74%
Draw or Luton
52%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
24%
Luton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
77%
QPR 2+ goals
43%
QPR 3+ goals
18%
Luton 1+ goals
62%
Luton 2+ goals
26%
Luton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
66%
Luton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Luton attack 0.85 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

QPR scores more
48%
level
26%
Luton scores more
25%

QPR at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. EzeQPRQPR · M
8.1

Match Events

3'
E. Eze↳ I. Chair
20'
N. Wells↳ T. Leistner
28'
N. Wells↳ E. Eze
36'
H. Cornick
47'
Todd Kane
48'
J. Collins↳ H. Cornick
59'
B. Galloway← L. Bolton
65'
Andrew Shinnie
66'
J. Mlakar← N. Wells
66'
G. Moncur← K. LuaLua
69'
L. Amos← T. Kane
74'
M. Pugh← I. Chair
79'
E. Lee← H. Cornick
90'
Grant Hall

Possession

54%QPR

Shots

18QPR

Pass accuracy

52%QPR

Statistics

QPRLuton
Overview
54%Possession46%
18Total Shots14
4Corners5
15Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots14
3On Target3
9Off Target5
6Blocked6
11Inside Box9
7Outside Box5
Passing
54%Possession46%
452Total Passes377
377Accurate Passes287
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Championship: QPR 3–2 Luton

QPR beat Luton 3-2 in Championship on September 14, 2019.

Goals: E. Eze (3'), N. Wells (20', 28'), H. Cornick (36'), J. Collins (48').

QPR controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.