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Qiziriq vs Respublika FA — Pro League A 2026

Qiziriq
Qiziriq
Preview
13:00
Respublika FA
Respublika FA
10/12/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 22
55%
Respublika FA
model favours
20%25%55%
0–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qiziriq20%
×Draw25%
Respublika FA55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qiziriq
0.83
Respublika FA
1.58

Respublika FA creates 90% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Qiziriq
0.50
Respublika FA
1.17

allows per match

Qiziriq
2.00
Respublika FA
1.17

finishing

Qiziriq+0.00on par
Respublika FA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qiziriq ↓

Respublika FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qiziriq or draw
45%
Qiziriq or Respublika FA
75%
Draw or Respublika FA
80%

Winning margin

Qiziriq wins by 2+
6%
Respublika FA wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Qiziriq 1+ goals
56%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
20%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
5%
Respublika FA 1+ goals
79%
Respublika FA 2+ goals
47%
Respublika FA 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Qiziriq (draw refunded)
26%
Respublika FA (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qiziriq at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Respublika FA away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qiziriq attack 0.50 + Respublika FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.83

Respublika FA attack 1.17 + Qiziriq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Qiziriq scores more
20%
level
25%
Respublika FA scores more
55%

Respublika FA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Respublika FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Qiziriq
LLLLW
FA
WWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Qiziriq host Respublika FA

October 12, 2026: Qiziriq take on Respublika FA in Pro League A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.