Qiziriq 2–4 Pakhtakor II: Result & Stats

Qiziriq

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Pakhtakor II

A. Norqobilov 90'

N. Nomozov 26' (pen)

M. Fatxullayev 76'

A. Saidov 70'

K. Mamasov 50'

M. Shuratov 7'

4/19/2026

Pro League A · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qiziriq32%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QiziriqExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Qiziriq

1.25

Pakhtakor II

1.50

Pakhtakor II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Qiziriq

0.50

Pakhtakor II

1.00

allows per match

Qiziriq

2.00

Pakhtakor II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qiziriq+0.00on par

Pakhtakor II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qiziriq ↓

Pakhtakor II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Qiziriq or draw

57%

Qiziriq or Pakhtakor II

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor II

68%

Winning margin

Qiziriq wins by 2+

13%

Pakhtakor II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Qiziriq 1+ goals

71%

Qiziriq 2+ goals

36%

Qiziriq 3+ goals

13%

Pakhtakor II 1+ goals

78%

Pakhtakor II 2+ goals

44%

Pakhtakor II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Qiziriq (draw refunded)

42%

Pakhtakor II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qiziriq at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Pakhtakor II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qiziriq attack 0.50 + Pakhtakor II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Pakhtakor II attack 1.00 + Qiziriq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Qiziriq scores more

32%

level

25%

Pakhtakor II scores more

43%

Pakhtakor II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pakhtakor II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Shuratov

26'

N. NomozovPenalty

50'

70'

76'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff