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Qiziriq vs Aral — Pro League A 2026

Qiziriq
Qiziriq
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aral
Aral
S. Zaripov 81' (OG)
5/29/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Qiziriq23%
×Draw25%
Aral52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qiziriq
0.95
Aral
1.58

Aral creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 29 away

creates per match

Qiziriq
0.50
Aral
1.17

allows per match

Qiziriq
2.00
Aral
1.41

finishing

Qiziriq+0.00on par
Aral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qiziriq ↓

Aral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qiziriq or draw
48%
Qiziriq or Aral
75%
Draw or Aral
77%

Winning margin

Qiziriq wins by 2+
8%
Aral wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Qiziriq 1+ goals
61%
Qiziriq 2+ goals
25%
Qiziriq 3+ goals
7%
Aral 1+ goals
79%
Aral 2+ goals
47%
Aral 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Qiziriq (draw refunded)
30%
Aral (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qiziriq at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Aral away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qiziriq attack 0.50 + Aral defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.95

Aral attack 1.17 + Qiziriq defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Qiziriq scores more
23%
level
25%
Aral scores more
52%

Aral at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
S. Shobirov
81'
S. ZaripovOwn goal
Qiziriq
Aral
E. Boymatov
Manager: E. Boymatov
Vadim Shodimatov
Manager: Vadim Shodimatov

Qiziriq 0 – 1 Aral

Aral beat Qiziriq 1-0 in Pro League A on May 29, 2026.

Goals: S. Zaripov (81' o.g.).