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Qizilqum vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Qizilqum
Qizilqum
Preview
15:00
Surkhon
Surkhon
10/9/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi
Big match
45%
Qizilqum
model favours
45%27%28%

Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Qizilqum45%
×Draw27%
Surkhon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qizilqum
1.40
Surkhon
1.03

Qizilqum creates 36% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

creates per match

Qizilqum
1.18
Surkhon
0.84

allows per match

Qizilqum
1.23
Surkhon
1.62

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 52Yes: 4852%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw
72%
Qizilqum or Surkhon
73%
Draw or Surkhon
55%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+
22%
Surkhon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals
75%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
41%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
17%
Surkhon 1+ goals
64%
Surkhon 2+ goals
28%
Surkhon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)
62%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.18 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qizilqum scores more
45%
level
27%
Surkhon scores more
28%

Qizilqum at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Qizilqum
DLLDW
Surkhon
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qizilqum face Surkhon (Super League)

Super League returns with Qizilqum hosting Surkhon. Match starts October 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Qizilqum host Surkhon at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.