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Qizilqum vs Shortan — Super League 2026

Qizilqum
Qizilqum
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Shortan
Shortan
11/29/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Qizilqum49%
×Draw26%
Shortan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qizilqum
1.52
Shortan
1.02

Qizilqum creates 49% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 21 away

creates per match

Qizilqum
1.18
Shortan
0.81

allows per match

Qizilqum
1.23
Shortan
1.86

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par
Shortan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Shortan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw
75%
Qizilqum or Shortan
74%
Draw or Shortan
51%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+
25%
Shortan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals
78%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
45%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
20%
Shortan 1+ goals
64%
Shortan 2+ goals
27%
Shortan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)
66%
Shortan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Shortan away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.18 + Shortan defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shortan attack 0.81 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Qizilqum scores more
49%
level
26%
Shortan scores more
25%

Qizilqum at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qizilqum 3–3 Shortan

Qizilqum and Shortan drew 3-3 in Super League on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi in Navoiy.