Qizilqum 1–0 Olmaliq: Result & Stats | Super League

Qizilqum

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olmaliq

E. Lobjanidze 84'

6/28/2024

Super League · Round 13Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Qizilqum37%

×Draw28%

Olmaliq36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QizilqumExpected goals in this matchOlmaliq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.19

Qizilqum

1.21

Olmaliq

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 30 away

1.09

creates per match

1.10

1.27

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Qizilqum

1.09

Olmaliq

1.10

allows per match

Qizilqum

1.27

Olmaliq

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Olmaliq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Olmaliq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw

64%

Qizilqum or Olmaliq

72%

Draw or Olmaliq

63%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+

16%

Olmaliq wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals

70%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

34%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

12%

Olmaliq 1+ goals

70%

Olmaliq 2+ goals

33%

Olmaliq 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

51%

Olmaliq (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Olmaliq away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.09 + Olmaliq defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olmaliq attack 1.10 + Qizilqum defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Qizilqum scores more

37%

level

28%

Olmaliq scores more

36%

Qizilqum at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

I. Rukhadze

30'

G. Kukhianidze

46'

G. Papava← M. Kosimov

46'

N. Abdurazzoqov← I. Rukhadze

50'

N. Tarasov

55'

D. Anvarov

61'

M. Giyosov

65'

G. Papava

65'

I. Vahobov← J. Ubaydullaev

72'

O. Rustamov

75'

S. Rakhmanov

75'

D. Rakhmatilloyev← D. Anvarov

75'

S. Jo'rabekov← G. Kukhianidze

82'

A. Usmanov

82'

Rubén Sánchez← A. Kholmurodov

84'

S. Fayziev← S. Rahmatullayev

84'

E. Lobjanidze

85'

E. Lobjanidze

87'

A. Abdurahmonov← K. Giyosov

87'

B. Kasymov← A. Sentoku

Qizilqum

Olmaliq

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Saidov

65'▲I. Vahobov←▼J. Ubaydullaev

75'▲D. Rakhmatilloyev←▼D. Anvarov

75'▲S. Jo'rabekov←▼G. Kukhianidze

84'▲S. Fayziev←▼S. Rahmatullayev

Qizilqum substitutes

VahobovRakhmatilloyevJo'rabekovFayzievAsadovTursunovKambarovAbdualimovSayyotov

Manager: M. Kasimov

46'▲G. Papava←▼M. Kosimov

46'▲N. Abdurazzoqov←▼I. Rukhadze

82'▲Rubén Sánchez←▼A. Kholmurodov

87'▲A. Abdurahmonov←▼K. Giyosov

87'▲B. Kasymov←▼A. Sentoku

Olmaliq substitutes

PapavaAbdurazzoqovSánchezAbdurahmonovKasymovUlmasalievBegimovIlyosovAkhrorov