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Qizilqum vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Qizilqum
Qizilqum
Preview
15:00
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
10/23/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi
Big match
37%
Qizilqum
model favours
37%28%35%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Qizilqum37%
×Draw28%
Lokomotiv35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qizilqum
1.22
Lokomotiv
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 74 away

creates per match

Qizilqum
1.18
Lokomotiv
1.16

allows per match

Qizilqum
1.23
Lokomotiv
1.26

finishing

Qizilqum+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qizilqum ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Qizilqum or draw
65%
Qizilqum or Lokomotiv
72%
Draw or Lokomotiv
63%

Winning margin

Qizilqum wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Qizilqum 1+ goals
70%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
34%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
12%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
70%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
33%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Qizilqum (draw refunded)
51%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qizilqum at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qizilqum attack 1.18 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Qizilqum defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Qizilqum scores more
37%
level
28%
Lokomotiv scores more
35%

Qizilqum at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Qizilqum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Qizilqum
DLLDW
Lokomotiv
DDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Qizilqum vs Lokomotiv — Match Preview

Qizilqum face Lokomotiv on October 23, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Qizilqum host Lokomotiv at Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.