Lokomotiv 1–0 Qizilqum: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qizilqum

J. Alijanov 83'

8/3/2022

Super League · Round 14Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Lokomotiv52%

×Draw26%

Qizilqum22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchQizilqum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.92

Lokomotiv

1.55

Qizilqum

0.92

Lokomotiv creates 68% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 97 away

1.55

creates per match

0.71

1.13

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.55

Qizilqum

0.71

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.13

Qizilqum

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Qizilqum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

78%

Lokomotiv or Qizilqum

74%

Draw or Qizilqum

48%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

27%

Qizilqum wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

20%

Qizilqum 1+ goals

60%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

23%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

70%

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.13 · 77 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.55 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.55

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Lokomotiv defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

52%

level

26%

Qizilqum scores more

22%

Lokomotiv at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

K. Mukhtarov

65'

I. Rashidkhanov← M. Safarov

70'

B. Yuldashov

70'

G. Gulyamov← N. Toshpo‘latov

70'

J. Alijanov← J. Mpasko

77'

D. Anvarov← A. Stanisavljević

77'

S. Djuraev← A. Usmanov

81'

A. Alijonov← J. Jaloliddinov

81'

I. Nagaev← M. Meliev

83'

J. Alijanov

86'

P. Komolafe← A. Dmitrijev

90'

O. Abduholiqov← S. Mustafoyev

Lokomotiv

Qizilqum

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Korostichenko

65'▲I. Rashidkhanov←▼M. Safarov

70'▲G. Gulyamov←▼N. Toshpo‘latov

70'▲J. Alijanov←▼J. Mpasko

81'▲A. Alijonov←▼J. Jaloliddinov

81'▲I. Nagaev←▼M. Meliev

Lokomotiv substitutes

RashidkhanovGulyamovAlijanovAlijonovNagaevOmonovKomilovSamuelKomilov

Manager: N. Lazarevic

77'▲D. Anvarov←▼A. Stanisavljević

77'▲S. Djuraev←▼A. Usmanov

86'▲P. Komolafe←▼A. Dmitrijev

90'▲O. Abduholiqov←▼S. Mustafoyev

Qizilqum substitutes

AnvarovDjuraevKomolafeAbduholiqovSanayevJuraevIlyosovAbdualimovTolmasov